On December 31, 1964 the Dow closed at 874.2. Seventeen Years later on December 31, 1981 the Dow closed at 875. Over that time period the GDP of the US grew by 370%, the sales of the Fortune 500 more than sextupled, and the Dow inched up a mere fraction of a point.
How is it possible […]
Halloween is coming: The Scary Problem with Variable Annuities: 2.91% Total Expected Return by Wade Dokken
Halloween is coming: The Scary Problem with Variable Annuities: 2.91% Total Expected Return
I’m working on a white paper on expected future returns for variable annuities. I have not yet completed the research, but I’d like to try out some of my thinking on you, and get your feedback in the comments section below.
Since we sold […]
Reminiscent of the dog days of 1971-1982, investors are again fleeing equity mutual funds at a record pace. The market recovery of the past year has proven sufficient only as a opportunity to run from equities with partial capital recovery. According to the New York Times, on Sunday, August 22nd.
“Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion […]
By late 1974 very little of the stock market was left in the “upper tier” and the vast majority, including a number of perfectly good companies, were in the rubble below. When asked later about this period Warren Buffet replied, “1974 in terms of buying opportunities—that was the best period I have seen.” Market prices […]
“The arithmetic here is deceptively simple. If a company’s earnings will increase 15% this year, and if the P-E ratio remains unchanged, then presto! The “investment” shows a 15 percent performance, plus the small dividend. If the P-E ratio advances—as it did for Avon in almost every year–the performance becomes that much better. These results […]
The second thing to consider with this period is intrinsic value. Buffett saw fit to begin his 1999 Sun Valley speech on the stock market by emphasizing, “Valuing is not the same as predicting.” The value of a stock to a shareholder is more accurately described by a company’s earnings not the expectations on price. […]