In this week’s article, Tim discusses the implications of the seemingly growing alliance between China and Russia, making the case that there is risk that deglobalization could accelerate as geopolitical tensions rise.

As anyone who has been a reader of our work knows, we believe that there are several distinct structural forces that will lead to higher long-term inflation. We’ve written about energy underinvestment and declining productivity as contributors to the thesis. This week, we want to throw another factor onto that list and this one is more counter-intuitive than those previously discussed: declining populations. I say counter-intuitive because, like many, I had always looked at the example of Japan as evidence that declining populations would yield declining inflation.