This week, Tim discusses Jerome Powell’s comments, Oaktree’s Howard Marks making the case on how today’s economy is fundamentally different than the last four decades, and the holy grail of nuclear fusion someday becoming a reality.

The Fed just told us that we are now in a new secular inflation regime and the market didn’t pay attention

This week, Tim looks at the key question every investor and fiduciary may ask themselves before making a market decision, where could I be wrong?

This week, Tim discusses the recent CPI report and how stagflation may come to more of a forefront in the coming months and how mild stagflation will become the new reality.

This week Tim discusses the Fed decision to raise the target rate 75 basis points and the long-term implications of today’s inflationary cycle.

This week Tim discusses the long-term view on the 60/40 portfolio. The traditional success of a 60/40 equity and bond allocation has been undermined by elevated inflation over the past year. While inflation will come down over the coming months, the secular risks such as deglobalization and aging demographic will lead to a more inflationary environment over the coming decade. The result is that a more defensive allocation that includes principal protection is warranted.

In this week’s essay, Tim dissects the role men dropping out of the workforce has had on the overall Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR).

In this week’s article, Tim discusses the changing labor market in the US, the rise of union popularity and whether today’s inflationary pressures are secular or cyclical.

Labor Shortage

Wage inflation in the United States has increased dramatically since the US economy emerged from from the depths of the pandemic. Tim explores when will this parabolic wage growth in the United States top out and how fast it decline as the Fed raises rates.