What Did We Learn This Week? (02/10/2023) - Oil Demand is a Tough Call, Supply Isn’t
“Capital efficiency” in the US energy sector has evolved to where the return of cash is coming at the expense of future refining capacity and upstream production.
What Did We Learn This Week? (02/03/2023)–When the Pain Trade is Higher
…I was short a lot of the same stocks as other traders and we were all trying to reduce exposure and manage risk at the same time pushing our respective positions higher and exacerbating our losses. We were well into the start of the Great Financial Crisis bear market, but in May, due to some piece of better economic data, the counter-trend rally was violent and I wasn’t handling it particularly well…
What Did We Learn This Week? (01/19/2023)–Soft Landing or Imminent Peril
This week Tim explores if the Fed’s latest moves have set our economy up for a soft landing or if all of the other factors pressuring today’s economy are too much to overcome a recession.
What Did We Learn This Week? (12/30/2022)–The Energy Transition Fantasy
Energy Transition is a Fantasy
What Did We Learn This Week? (12/16/2022)–The Fed, Oaktree, Fusion
This week, Tim discusses Jerome Powell’s comments, Oaktree’s Howard Marks making the case on how today’s economy is fundamentally different than the last four decades, and the holy grail of nuclear fusion someday becoming a reality.
What Did We Learn This Week? (12/06/2022)–Brainard
The Fed just told us that we are now in a new secular inflation regime and the market didn’t pay attention
What Did We Learn This Week? (11/29/2022)–Finding the Positives
This week, Tim looks at the key question every investor and fiduciary may ask themselves before making a market decision, where could I be wrong?
November Update with Jonathan Golub and Tim Pierotti
In this video Tim covers the factors driving the secular energy inflation issue. Underinvestment, industry changes, geopolitical issues, and demand all contribute to high oil prices long term.
What Did We Learn This Week? (11/11/2022)–Mild Stagflation
This week, Tim discusses the recent CPI report and how stagflation may come to more of a forefront in the coming months and how mild stagflation will become the new reality.
Tim Pierotti—The End of the Great Moderation
In this video Tim Pierotti looks at the four long term factors that contributed to the Great Moderation and how they have come to an end and how financial professionals can plan moving forward.
What Did We Learn This Week? (11/4/2022)–Elusive Pivot
This week Tim discusses the Fed decision to raise the target rate 75 basis points and the long-term implications of today’s inflationary cycle.
Tim Pierotti—Energy Inflation
In this video Tim covers the factors driving the secular energy inflation issue. Underinvestment, industry changes, geopolitical issues, and demand all contribute to high oil prices long term.
What Did We Learn This Week? (10/20/2022)–60/40
This week Tim discusses the long-term view on the 60/40 portfolio. The traditional success of a 60/40 equity and bond allocation has been undermined by elevated inflation over the past year. While inflation will come down over the coming months, the secular risks such as deglobalization and aging demographic will lead to a more inflationary environment over the coming decade. The result is that a more defensive allocation that includes principal protection is warranted.
What Did We Learn This Week? (10/20/2022) - Men Without Work
In this week’s essay, Tim dissects the role men dropping out of the workforce has had on the overall Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR).
What Did We Learn This Week? (10/13/2022)—The Other Oil Cartel
In this week’s post, Tim investigates oil supply and demand and the lack of chronic and structural investment in the refining space. He argues that while the US has become far more energy independent, the benefits may not be as disinflationary as we may hope.
Tim Pierotti—Factor Investing Video Guide
In this video Tim discusses Factor Investing and goes over Quality, Momentum, Value, Size and Volatility Factors and how they function within an investment portfolio.
What Did We Learn This Week? (10/06/2022)—Sell-side Research
In this week’s essay, Tim discusses the problem of trying to value the equity markets based off consensus forward estimates. Wall Street estimates will always be behind the curve in a downturn and this time is no different. Stocks may look “cheap” on current estimates but those estimates are always far too high ahead of recessions.
What Did We Learn This Week? (09/29)—Supply constraints are secular
In this week’s article, Tim dives into recent treasury yields. Arguing that while the near term inflation numbers may ease, the long-term effect of supply induced inflation is a secular issue.
What Did We Learn This Week? (09/22)—The New Labor Renaissance
In this week’s article, Tim discusses the changing labor market in the US, the rise of union popularity and whether today’s inflationary pressures are secular or cyclical.
What Did We Learn This Week? (09/08)—The End of China’s Disinflation
In this week’s article, Tim discusses the implications of the seemingly growing alliance between China and Russia, making the case that there is risk that deglobalization could accelerate as geopolitical tensions rise.