Why hasn’t the “most anticipated recession in history” started yet?

What does a new working paper from the NBER and Washington University tell us about quiet quitting and today’s labor environment?

In this episode Drew and Tim interview Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo. They discuss what a nolanding economic scenario would look like, employment numbers, the struggle to get inflation down to 2%, the housing market and how demographics will affect future growth prospects.

“Capital efficiency” in the US energy sector has evolved to where the return of cash is coming at the expense of future refining capacity and upstream production.

…I was short a lot of the same stocks as other traders and we were all trying to reduce exposure and manage risk at the same time pushing our respective positions higher and exacerbating our losses. We were well into the start of the Great Financial Crisis bear market, but in May, due to some piece of better economic data, the counter-trend rally was violent and I wasn’t handling it particularly well…

This week Tim explores if the Fed’s latest moves have set our economy up for a soft landing or if all of the other factors pressuring today’s economy are too much to overcome a recession.

Energy Transition is a Fantasy

This week, Tim discusses Jerome Powell’s comments, Oaktree’s Howard Marks making the case on how today’s economy is fundamentally different than the last four decades, and the holy grail of nuclear fusion someday becoming a reality.

The Fed just told us that we are now in a new secular inflation regime and the market didn’t pay attention

This week, Tim looks at the key question every investor and fiduciary may ask themselves before making a market decision, where could I be wrong?

In this video Tim covers the factors driving the secular energy inflation issue. Underinvestment, industry changes, geopolitical issues, and demand all contribute to high oil prices long term.

This week, Tim discusses the recent CPI report and how stagflation may come to more of a forefront in the coming months and how mild stagflation will become the new reality.

In this video Tim Pierotti looks at the four long term factors that contributed to the Great Moderation and how they have come to an end and how financial professionals can plan moving forward.

This week Tim discusses the Fed decision to raise the target rate 75 basis points and the long-term implications of today’s inflationary cycle.

In this video Tim covers the factors driving the secular energy inflation issue. Underinvestment, industry changes, geopolitical issues, and demand all contribute to high oil prices long term.

This week Tim discusses the long-term view on the 60/40 portfolio. The traditional success of a 60/40 equity and bond allocation has been undermined by elevated inflation over the past year. While inflation will come down over the coming months, the secular risks such as deglobalization and aging demographic will lead to a more inflationary environment over the coming decade. The result is that a more defensive allocation that includes principal protection is warranted.

In this week’s essay, Tim dissects the role men dropping out of the workforce has had on the overall Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR).

In this week’s post, Tim investigates oil supply and demand and the lack of chronic and structural investment in the refining space. He argues that while the US has become far more energy independent, the benefits may not be as disinflationary as we may hope.

In this video Tim discusses Factor Investing and goes over Quality, Momentum, Value, Size and Volatility Factors and how they function within an investment portfolio.

In this week’s essay, Tim discusses the problem of trying to value the equity markets based off consensus forward estimates. Wall Street estimates will always be behind the curve in a downturn and this time is no different. Stocks may look “cheap” on current estimates but those estimates are always far too high ahead of recessions.