It was just over a year ago that Bloomberg ran the now infamous headline: “Forecast for US Recession Within One Year Hits 100%”. Q3 GDP growth numbers suggest the contrary but is the economy due for an acceleration to the downside?

Markets appear to be set-up for a relief rally in both bonds and equities.

This week Tim focuses on the positives and as the great basketball coach Jim Valvano said, “NEVER, EVER, GIVE UP”

This week Tim looks into the latest CPI numbers and what they mean for the long term inflation numbers.

We have been saying for a while that inexorably high energy prices are part of “The Secular Drivers of Inflation.” The article excerpted below from today’s WSJ affirms our view. The point is simple. US Oil companies aren’t going to use excess cash to drill more because their investors want the cash returned to them. That isn’t going to change, not in the face of the energy transition. The unprecedented pricing power of the Saudi’s exists not because there isn’t spare US capacity, but because there isn’t really cheap spare capacity.

We have been saying for a while that inexorably high energy prices are part of “The Secular Drivers of Inflation.” The article excerpted below from today’s WSJ affirms our view. The point is simple. US Oil companies aren’t going to use excess cash to drill more because their investors want the cash returned to them. That isn’t going to change, not in the face of the energy transition. The unprecedented pricing power of the Saudi’s exists not because there isn’t spare US capacity, but because there isn’t really cheap spare capacity.

Equity futures are under pressure following yesterday’s Fed meeting. My view is that the reason for the weakness in futures this morning has more to do with the upside breakout of the Ten-Year Treasury versus anything the Chairman said at his press conference.

WealthVest, a financial services distribution firm based in Bozeman, Montana, has released an advanced-level training and insurance continuing education course for financial professionals and insurance agents interesting in learning how to become safety-first retirement income planning professionals.

We may soon find out just how embedded secular inflation fears have become.

The surging momentum of populism and subsequent polarization is making it harder for our American democracy to accomplish the goal of the prudent stewardship of our current economy and our longer-term economic well-being.

On July 20th, the CBO published, “The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget”. How bad will our deficits and national debt get? We have no idea.

Stephanie Kelton's book, The Deficit Myth, challenges the belief that deficits matter, arguing that as a sovereign nation, we will never run out of money. However, the current state of the US economy, with low potential GDP and tight labor markets, suggests that deficits do matter, and measures need to be taken to reduce them and balance monetary policy.

20% of GDP growth in Q1’23 came from manufacturing construction, a subsector of the economy that normally accounts for only 1% of GDP. But there will be negative unintended consequences to so much government directed investment in the long-term.

In this video Drew and Tim discuss the major market developments and indicators of Q2 2023. One of the major points of the conversation is that consensus has gone from a hard landing to a soft landing. Global markets, namely China are also discussed.

While few economists have gotten it right this year, but the sheer randomness of 2023 may have many celebrating prematurely.

Tim explores whether house prices will revert to the mean or if prices are likely to remain at a high-water mark for an extended period of time.

Last week Tim was one of two keynote speakers at a financial services conference along with Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest. Cathie, a notable investor in disruptive tech, has said “AI is going to produce the most massive productivity increase in history. The productivity gains are going to be astounding and shocking.” Tim discusses the importance of productivity gains if the US is going to be able to manage the current debt and deficit challenges.

Looking at many economic data points can reinforce individual biases whether you are a bull or a bear. Tim makes the point that money and ego are powerful forces that can overwhelm calculated decision making.